I think the tariffs have put a big cloud over ag markets and there “is never going to ever be any supportive news ever again” on corn, wheat, beans, meat.....
And so the tariff/China issue has set up a bleak market with no investors or big money funds coming around to play the commodities game and create some upward pricing. The past decade or so much of our grain prices have been driven by speculators, which take huge sums of money (our retirement funds) and stick that money in investments that look good, such as grain futures. Back when interest was .03% it was pretty easy to stick a few billion onto corn and soybeans, and hope it would make a few million return. Now with interest at 1% and we know ‘we won’t ever sell anothe bean or corn bushel ever again,’ it’s easy for that money to be stuck someplace else to invest.
But in general, most of the price action is exactly as you say, a big global crop, no one in the world is,looking like they will be short on grains, there is no reason to bid any kind of a price for any crop. Way plenty to go around. USDA has us about to harvest one of the biggest crops ever.
The price naturally would spiral down in the marketplace.
I sold enough corn with a $1 as the first number, and beans with a $4 as the first number, to not be too alarmed with normal market fluctuations.
What bothers me more is my fields are getting drowned for the 10th time or so this summer, I’m sick of the poor summer and poor crops......
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