If it's the right thermo, it should fit in that hose, but it may be a bit tight. Yes, that upper hose is just a straight piece of rubber hose, 1 1/2"...?, OK, whatever it needs to be to mate-up with the radiator and manifold necks, that sounds right.
I got a new thermo a few years ago, the new one had a bit different shape on the ends, but the OD was the same and it worked. The thermo body will probably have a rib around it to make a tight seal in the hose, might need to get it wet to help slide it in the hose. Warning ! The thermo will only work right if installed in the right direction, it should have a flow arrow stamped on the side. Put it in backwards and you will overheat your engine real fast. It should be positioned as close to the engine as possible.I've had similar experiences with Massey dealers, they don't support these old tractors very well. If your not buying an $500 part for a $50,000 tractor, they treat you like a nuisance.
Try a New Holland dealer, TSC, or anyone else selling Tisco parts, or some web sites. They should all be able to get the right thermo. I got one from a N.H dealer a few years ago and was real happy with it... I think the thermo might be the same as the ones used in Ford N tractors, not positive though. Suprisingly, I didn't see a thermo listed in the parts section on this web site..., but I saw one on ----- -- for ~$11.00.
Good luck!
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